Mistaken beliefs have encumbered humanity from before
recorded
history. Probably the most paramount of these has been the idea of
believing in what one wishes for makes it so. The preeminent example of
this has been belief in the supernatural, most notably in God or gods.
Uninformed man has always feared what he could not understand--why
certain things happened. What was lightening and why did it start
fires? What was an eclipse all about, was the sun going out? Why did
people expire?
In order to grasp at some control over these phenomena, objects were
given special powers and then gods were imagined and invented, human
like forces that determined the unknowable and could be appealed to.
Prayers and sacrifices were made in the hopes of certainty and
amelioration. People could not accept the concept of the end of life
and invented an imaginary afterlife despite no evidence of any souls
and no consensus about what heaven would actually be like. The good
would be rewarded and the bad punished in hell, although in some
religious strains God forgave sinners.
No matter that prayers were not usually answered by God(s) who was all
powerful and compassionate. The conflicting fact that a wonderful god
lets innocent children suffer and die needlessly by the thousands each
day is still ignored. We see countless people emerge from disasters to
thank God for their survival but never blaming God for initiating the
disaster in the first place. We need God so he must be there and he
must be the kind of god we want. And so we remain fatalistic and
infantilized.
Such illogic isn't confined to religious devotion.
Devotion to an
ideology often supplants pragmatism based on evidence. Many people
believe that this country will rebound and achieve greatness (not just
hegemony). Pragmatically looking at the realities and projections would
be too depressing. And that brings us to the current Republican
presidential candidates campaign in which Rick Santorum has stated that
he doesn't believe in global warming. Actually, if he isn't just lying,
he doesn't want to conjure with the implications and the really bad
news that would entail. It takes no expertise to grasp that atmospheric
carbon dioxide traps heat and that we, particularly Americans, are
pumping evermore enormous amounts of it into the air when we burn
fossil fuels. Since CO2 doesn't just escape into space or spontaneously
dissolve, it has to warm the planet. The scientific consensus is that
if we don't stop increasing and then start reducing the escaping gas in
this decade then we probably will no longer be able to control the
warming progression and by the end of the century this planet may be
virtually uninhabitable. In the intervening years, billions of people
will die. And how that comes about won't be pretty. An immediately
forgotten ABC documentary (based on the book 6 Degrees
in March 2008 provided the scenario. One would think that the
Precautionary Principle, applyed here, would be at least discussed
seriously but no.
No Republican presidential candidate has made the end of the earth as
we know it a campaign issue. No mainstream media leaders have brought
up the subject in any noticeable way. And President Obama has all but
ignored the subject. So the underinformed public pays little attention.
We don't want this overheating to happen so it just won't.
Other modern variants of this wishful thinking are around. Despite
evidence to the contrary, Republicans (probably at least some, the
others are just lying their heads off) continue to clamor for more
deregulation when it is clear that the absence of enforced regulation
led to the financial collapse and trillions of taxpayer dollars spent
on restoration--as opposed to Canada. Some of the right just can't face
the wrongheadedness of their beliefs. The rich create jobs even if
demand is insufficient. They want trickle down to be true so badly that
it must be true.
You can probably come up with other examples of this human fallability
and you can see how badly people can be led astray. Grim times are
ahead and retreating into fantasy will only exacerbate the misfortune.
The time to face stark reality is right now.
January 28, 2012
JBM
With Liberty and Justice for Some
Glenn Greenwald
2011
Want to be infuriated? Enraged? Livid? Discouraged?
Depressed?
Ashamed? Then this is the book for you. For if there is anything the
right and left can agree on, most would believe that there should be
one standard of justice for all. Even the founding fathers (and their
successors) acknowledged that, although there would be class
disparities, equal justice should apply to everyone. Greenwald devotes
the introduction to documenting that core intent.
Then he goes on to describe how this binding tenet has been unraveled,
starting with the Nixon pardon. With the complicity of the major media
and both political parties, we have come to accept the
institutionalized 2-3 tiered system in which the elite can get away
with virtually anything without penalty. Yet, as if to make up for the
laxity and corruption involved, our lawmakers and judicial system has
come down hardest on the poor, with the most incarcerated of any
nation--any nation. Given that the middle class is less
"inconvenienced", there is little pressure to overhaul.
So Oliver North and company get off (pardons if convicted) despite
their actions in the Iran-Contra scandal. President Reagan is never
tried. President Clinton blocked accountability. Bush 43 flouted the
law regarding wire taps, torture, illegal imprisonment without trial,
renditions, signing statements, the Libby leak coverup and lying us
into the Iraq war, if not more. The concept of retroactive immunity was
devised by congress to absolve the telecoms of wrong doing. Barak Obama
campaigned against this legislation, then turned around and voted for
it.
President Obama is blistered not only for supporting the erosion of our
right to privacy while adamantly blocking governmental transparency but
for closing off any investigation, indictment and prosecution of the
flagrant Bush violations, the monstrous Wall Street investment fraud
and the illegal home foreclosures. His "looking ahead" excuse isn't
acceptable for the 99%. Obama not only has broken U.S. law in covering
up illegalities he has broken international treaties we have signed on
to. Dissuading the Spanish from investigation and possible prosecution
of Bush is an example of that. And to top it off, we criticize and
condemn other countries for the same lawless political tactics that
have become institutionalized here.
Greenwald rounds up the cases that were somewhat widely reported at the
time and adds others that escaped mass public attention in order to
make a devastating case. Some of the revolving door is revealed; one of
the latest being Tim Geithner. As Senator Durbin noted, "they [Goldman
Sachs etc.] own this [Washington] place". Got a problem? Just add a
little campaign contribution money and it will go away. [One flaw: this
book cries out for foot note references but none are supplied.]
A real system of justice here would see at least the current president,
his predecessor, their top officials and most congressmen not only
impeached but incarcerated. "It is now clear that there are virtually
no limits on the magnitude of the crimes that the nation's most
powerful private actors can commit with impunity" (page 104). Notice
that in all their condemnation of Obama, no Republican presidential
candidate raises this issue of "justice for some" and the media never
asks. We should all be ashamed to be Americans.
December 23, 2011
JBM
This is the forecast from 10 years ago:
Now that the first full year of the new millennium is complete, we have
seen not only the initial world shaking attack of the modern single
super power era but America's military, economic and diplomatic
response which has reduced, to the point of elimination, the
headquarters of al Queda. In the year(s) to come, it remains to be seen
how far the U.S., and whatever allies it hangs on to, will go to track
down and dispose of other terror groupings. As such efforts become more
morally murky and continuously consume revenues which could otherwise
be directed at our economic and social problems, congressional
candidates this fall will be judged by their positions on this subject.
Less attention and emphasis is likely to be placed on our creep towards
an autocratic police state. So far, the majority seem to favor doing
away with our "freedoms", at least in name if not in fact-yet, in order
to maximize security. It probably hasn't occurred to most that
suppression of dissent, described as giving aid and comfort to our
enemies, will be increasingly necessary to control a population that
senses and reacts to the amassing and consolidation of wealth and
control by the tiny elite. Prozac and the like may be the precursors of
"soma" ( Brave New World ) but as yet can go only so far.
And it is predictable that Americans will decreasingly pay attention to
potential trouble spots and breeding grounds for terrorists around the
world as news organizations cut back on overseas reporting in order to
maximize profits. Violent clashes may be briefly highlighted...
In truth, we the people will pay attention and base our votes on what
the major news outlets present and emphasize. As they combine and
increasingly reflect their corporate agenda, Americans will ignore
vital matters in our midst. However, one thing we can't ignore is
increasing middle class unemployment, economic jeopardy and the lack of
adequate congressional help. State budgets are very tight and will
offer little relief. Unless there is a break through by some Democratic
candidates, increasing taxes on the wealthy is unthinkable. Given the
squeeze of homeland security expenditures, no new taxes and the needs
of the hard pressed unemployed and underemployed, one can guess that
those who don't vote, the underclass, will get only what's left of the
crumbs.
There has been much talk about the attacks of 11/9 having brought us
together but under the prevailing circumstances look for economic
stress cracks to open up. We have seen an example of that already in
the stimulus package that failed to get through congress. At least Dick
Armey is retiring but another Darwinist will probably take his place.
It wouldn't be quite so bad if the "fittest" didn't compound their
advantages with the help of the congress and president who are supposed
to represent the best interests of all of us.
Unless something drastic happens, almost all House members will be
returned to office because of insufficient resources of the
challengers. And unless the Democrats control at least the House or
Senate, any uninfluential Americans who fall through the cracks will
find no impediments to a crash landing. And it looks like a bumpy ride
for most of the rest of us. Welcome to 2002.
1/1/02
JBM
Here is last year's summary:
Basically, it was another year of just holding on.
The predicted talk about TV contraction never occurred, although the
severe downgrading of quality network prime time TV did. Housing
foreclosures continued to depress prices but commercial property didn't
draw attention. Health care passed but is not popular partly because it
is massively complicated and confusing. GOP gains were made in the fall
but more than expected. No surprise that nothing was done about climate
change. "Minor" terror attacks were thwarted and the threat remains
secondary to the economy on the anxiety scale.
And that anxiety is likely to increase in 2011 as some bills come due.
Republicans are likely to block raising the federal debt ceiling unless
they get more gains for the wealthy and/or cuts in spending for those
in need [Obama avoided most of that outcome]. Governmental layoffs will
raise the unemployment level as tax cuts won't create offsetting
private sector jobs [not quite but close] and Republicans will block
any proposed massive stimulus needed to jump start the economy. House
Rep. Issa will use hearings to smear Dems and deflect attention from
Republican malfeasance [that didn't turn out to be the case]. Of
course, mainstream TV news will play along.
Some states and/or localities are likely to default on obligations,
driving up municipal bond interest rates [this also didn't come to pass
yet] which will mean foregoing needed infrastructure repairs or
investment [which happened anyway]. There will be cutbacks in public
education when we are already doing an inadequate job there. More
people will lose health insurance [?] until the Obama plan takes affect
in 2014. Figure gas prices to go up due to international demand. This
too will shear off the top of any unlikely recovery.
A good analogy is the recent storm which dumped rain in southern
California and traveled across the nation to dump snow on NY and the
east coast, snarling traffic and air lines around the country. Some
people will be devastated, others disrupted and inconvenienced and
still others will remain relatively unaffected.
There is no indication that our foreign policy will change. Drift will
continue, given a president who is a conciliator. The outcome will be
gains made by the BRIC countries (minus Russia) while we stagnate.
Europe won't fare much better as the richer countries try and prop up
those sliding towards insolvency. AfPak, NK and Iran will be prominent
irritants. Burma, the Sudan and Venezuela will get minimal attention...
One joker in the deck to watch will be how the Tea Party congressmen
affect conventional, country club Republicans and legislation before
congress. How much will they scare conventional GOPers and move them to
the extreme right? How many of them will be bought out by the special
interests? How far will the hypocrisy go? And how long before
Republican voters realize that they have been had? How long before
those barely surviving start protesting? How long before the
demonstrations turn into riots? How long before we become another
Russia and then another North Korea? That is the road we are on, the
only question is how far along will we travel in 2011. Or, on the other
hand, who will stop it?
January 1, 2011
As you can see, the basic trends are moving along as predicted. The
Occupy movement has even commanded the attention of the mainstream
media to the plight of the dispossessed. Republican presidential
candidates fall all over themselves to appeal to the right wing
extremists and their wealthy patrons. Our problems get more acute as
congress dithers. The president can now pull anyone off the street and
make him, or her, "disappear" if they seem to be "disruptive".
2012 will be a watershed year. The media will be consumed by the horse
race but not governing policy. Both parties will wait for the November
results. And the world will be watching. Either Republicans are swept
out of congress en mass or they will grid lock our government for
another 4 years. Any move to take money out of our politics will fall
short of enactment. The presidency is Obama's to lose but those
concerned about the country and the world can take little comfort from
his governance thus far. Another year of global warming, with
concomitant tipping points reached, will go unaddressed even though
symptoms occur.
If our unemployment rate dips somewhat, it won't reflect the overall
decline in America's prospects. Housing foreclosures will continue and
infrastructure maintenance will diminished. Further state cutbacks are
practically guaranteed. Food pantries will be further stressed. Europe
will struggle (keeping our investments roiling) and any mid-east
political improvements will confront populations which can't compete in
world markets so inadequate employment will drive further unrest. We
can expect to see more scientific breakthroughs and innovations (while
some deny scientific evidence) but there will be more resulting
complications too.
And that's about the best we can hope for.
December 31, 2011
JBM
The Price of Civilization
Jeffrey D. Sachs
2011
If you read a book in the coming year, make this the
one. Sachs
takes the first 158 pages to most accurately describe what has gone
wrong with America and then spends the next 105 pages describing what
can be done to restore our society. The good news is that he thinks
that it wouldn't take that much and he makes a defined case for an
economic recovery agenda. For anyone not fully knowledgeable about our
conditions, this is the grounding needed.
Sachs comes back to America after studying and advising other countries
about their misguided directions. As a self described "clinical
economist" he takes another broad spectrum (economic, political, social
and psychological) approach here. Some highlights: he blasts the Reagan
administration for propelling us in the wrong direction by cutting
taxes (70% to 28%) for the wealthy, federal spending cuts on civilian
programs, deregulation and out sourcing. Oblivious of the changes due
to globalization he set about deregulating the business economy which
opened the door for our manufacturing job exodus along with the S&L
collapse. Republicans have made minimal taxes for the rich their top
priority ever since, starving us of the needed equity, repair,
construction and R&D we have needed to compete and provide an
adequate quality of life for all. Given the right wing distortion and
worship of the man, all the historical correction we can get is
valuable.
Lots of statistical clarification is presented. Red state voters
chastise the federal government for economic redistribution but they
are the states that receive more than they send to Washington. Some
poorer countries have longer life expectancies (an indictment of our
inequality and wasteful health care system). We are about 17th in "life
satisfaction". A wide variance in per pupil school spending reduces
equality of opportunity. TANF is only 0.1% of GDP. "There are no areas
of obvious massive [government] waste" as civilian discretionary
spending accounts for only 0.13% of GDP (in 2010). 21 areas are
identified for 2015 savings but it amounts to only 0.6% of GDP. We can
reduce spending by roughly 3% of GDP by reducing the military and
health care costs. But even the cuts identified are canceled out by
roughly 3% more in the needed spending increases Sachs identifies;
including job training, schooling, early child care, modernizing
infrastructure, R&D and foreign assistance.
Sachs makes the case for affordable tax increases, especially on the
wealthy (the top 1% have as much wealth as the bottom 90%), in order to
reduce our deficits. Throw in ending corporate subsidizes, closing
loopholes, passing and enforcing a transaction tax and increasing gas
taxes and our debt becomes manageable without extraordinary pain. Keep
in mind that all such numbers are contingent on our GDPs, they are not
stand alone figures.
A minor point of consternation. Sachs argues for "subsidiarity"
(pushing down decisions towards the local level) but he seems to be
prescribing more federal determinants. Clearly we can't have chopped up
priorities with free riders and still have a cohesive country in a
globalized world. But that is a minor point in an otherwise
foundational book. It is a must read.
December 12, 2011
JBM
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